Monday, November 5, 2012

Since you started it, here is my prediction.

OK, Atticus, Since you started it, I'll take the bait and give you my predictions. While we agree so often, it is like we are of one mind, it is hard to imagine my disagreeing with you. I do, however, think you are wrong in your conclusion. And as you are inclined to be very defensive about it, I will lay out my argument in short and simple terms.
For starters, of the total of 538 electoral votes available, due to redistricting based on the recent census, if the two parties split the states the same way they did four years ago, the President will lose nearly 20 electoral votes. This would however still give the president the victory.
That said, there are several things that lead me to believe that while it may be a narrow victory, I think the President will go the way of Jimmy Carter. I've given you this reasoning before and you still don't believe me. I'll say it again here one more time so that everyone else can see me make my argument and you will not be able to say, "You never told me that."
I credit the 2008 Obama victory to Steve Jobs, God rest his soul, and his invention, the iPhone. Barack Obama did an excellent job using the new technologies of facebook and twitter four years ago when these were new means of communication and accessible mobily via the also new iPhone. This led to a brand new group of voters who had no experience in politics or reading political propaganda. They took then Senator Obama at his word, listened to the great oratory of the senator from Illinois and turned out in droves to campaign and vote for this amazing man.
While this is what led to his astonishing victory over whoever the pachyderms presented, this has also been the source of his fall from fame. As other politicians, news sources, bloggers and average layperson became familiar not only with how to drink from this new propaganda fount but how to publish, these virgin political junkies started drinking from other fountains. When they realized there was other food to be had, in addition to the candy they had been stoked up on, they started eating meat and vegetable and the same cynicism that pushed them to believe in the Pied Piper led them to doubt. When the snake oil salesman left them with a bottle of artesian well water, they became disillusioned. Even though the Android users would like you to believe that the iPhone addict is a mindless follower of Guru Steve, they are still very much independent thinkers.
As they drank and ate more of this free information and began filtering drivel and attempted to distill the truth, they gradually started leaving the piper and began beating their own drum. Evidence of this is the decline of the prophet Michael Moore, that culminated during the recall in Wisconsin. The state that Barack had just easily won came under siege by these radical leftist fundamentalists. They poured everything they could into the state and the recall wasn't even close.
I will wrap up this annecdotal proposition with this final few pieces of evidence. Millions who voted for the first time in their lives will not vote again for two reasons, they haven't made it a habit to stay informed and vote and they are not motivated to get out and vote the way they were last time. Additionally, you will encounter people all across America who voted for this President the last time who are ashamed that they voted for him and say that they will adamantly, now that they feel more educated, vote against him. You have not heard of a single person who voted for the Elephant in the last election who says they will change and vote for they Mule this time.

Give Wisconsin to Romney. Florida also goes Republican as does North Carolina. Both states have seen substantial losses in the democrat to republican ratios. Don't be surprised if Colorado and Iowa both go to Romney. I give Romney Pennsylvania due to the Presidents treatment of fossil fuels industries. I think it will come down to turnout and based on erosion of the base of 2008 Obama supporters and lack of enthusiasm.

Finally, I think the real shocker of the night will be the narrow margin in which the president will win in Illinois. The President won in 2008 by 25% a recent poll in the middle of October had the his lead cut to 7%.

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Fearless Election Eve Prediction

Being the sort that I am I'll be riveted to the television and laptop watching each tiny precinct percentage uptick to see what's going to happen.

What do I think will happen? I'm not convinced that the polls are overly biased toward President Obama, but I'm also not yet past the results in Wisconsin recently that were significantly outside the margin of error. If all the state polls are as poorly done as those in Wisconsin were then it'll be a quick and joyful night for Governor Romney. If not, it will be a long night for both.

I'm thinking long night and the tiniest of wins for the incumbent. My electoral college prediction courtesy's build your own map:

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